Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
